The good people of Norwich North go to the polls today to elect a successor to Ian Gibson. National coverage of the by-election has been limited and predictions confused by a number of factors – the unusual circumstances of Dr Gibson’s resignation, the Labour candidate apparently collapsing with Swine Flu and therefore being unable to campaign (I hope he gets better soon), the Lib Dem candidate having a moat 
and the complication of the Greens having a level of local strength unrepresentative of the country at large.
Nevertheless, in almost any circumstance this should be a comfortable Tory gain. They are the second placed party in a Labour seat at a time of unpopularity for a Labour Government.
A Tory spokesman has been reported as saying “Suggestions of a 4000-plus Conservative majority in Norwich are way off beam. Our team there is forecasting a tight finish” which has been taken to mean that it’s too close to call by Iain Dale among others. I have no idea why.
What is he supposed to say: “Our canvass data shows we’re romping home. If you were thinking of voting for us you needn’t bother turning out, it’s in the bag.”
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