26 June 2008
Hooray for Henley
The good people of Henley go to the polls today to replace Boris Johnson as their local MP. I’m not entirely sure ‘Bo Jo’ is replaceable but they’re giving it a go anyway. Media, bookies and pundits alike all agree it should be a cake walk for Mr Cameron’s party. This has been ‘True Blue’ territory since God was a boy, by all accounts Bozza remains an extremely popular figure among his former constituents, the party is doing well nationally and they have selected a super-safe local candidate who loves small animals and buttercups and smiles on cue.
At the last election the vote share for the main parties was: Conservative 53.5%, Lib Dems 26.0% and Labour 14.7%. So the Tories polled fully twice as many votes as the second-placed party. On the bald figures they should romp home by the proverbial mile.
But what does success really look like for the Tories in Henley. I have been told by Conservative chums who have been campaigning there that any hold at all against the famed Lib Dem by-election team is a triumph. So, apparently, seeing a 27% majority slashed to 1% would be fine. Someone (I think Disraeli but I haven’t got the strength/time to check) once said “As for our majority – one is enough”. OK, sort of. Personally I think the Tories should hold on by more than 15 points to claim that ALL is well.
Place your bets.
» Posted by James Lundie, Associate Director, Edelman UK | Comments (2)
18 June 2008
Published voting records – a brilliant idea
There’s an interesting debate raging on the blogosphere this week about David Davis MP. Not his 42 days stance but his stance on gay rights. At the weekend I noticed on my Facebook newsfeed that Ben Bradshaw MP was saying how could David Davis stand for liberty when he voted against virtually every piece of equality legislation Labour has introduced. Ben’s subsequent letter in the Guardian has provoked an interesting debate online, of which Iain Dale – fresh from his own Civil Partnership – adding a personal touch to the debate.
The comments on Dale’s post are really actually quite interesting as for the first time in a long time you’re seeing people look beyond the endorsements, spin, commentary and turn to an examination of an individual MP’s voting record in the Commons. Since sites like theyworkforyou.com and publicwhip.org.uk have become established it no longer takes hours trawling through dusty copies of Hansard to see how your MP has voted on key issues. For a great many people, I suspect, this may be the first time they’ve studied someone’s Parliamentary voting record – and I imagine for some of them it won’t be the last time either. This has to be a good thing for our democracy.
As a self-confessed political hack I find it fascinating seeing how an individual MP’s public stance can vary considerably from their voting record in the Commons. And, of course, party whipping makes a difference when it comes to which lobby MPs go through but at the end of the day how you vote is how you vote and it is this that matters when the results are reported back. If there is to be a debate about the merits of someone’s character and time in Parliament this surely cannot be divorced from how they actually voted – whether on 42 days, gay rights, health, education or anything else.
In a speech last week David Cameron, not normally a man I praise too often I must admit, made the very sensible point of praising websites like theyworkforyou.com in opening up the political process to scrutiny. He said they make lives of MPs a little more difficult but the transparency is worth this cost and I couldn’t agree more.
If this David Davis, gay rights and civil liberties debate does nothing more than expose to a large section of the public the merits and utility of publishing voting records online allowing voters to make their own minds up about how an MP stands on an issue then it has been worth it. This whole David Davis and gay rights debate does remind me of Labour’s 2005 General Election slogan – which could, to be fair apply as a good principle for Parliamentary votes in general - ‘If you value it, vote for it’ – and on this like so many more issues published voting records expose a real truth about how our representatives vote on our behalf in Parliament.
I’ve clearly got my view, and others may disagree but why not make your own mind up if David Davis is supportive of gay rights. Some say he is like Iain Dale here, others say he isn’t.
Look at his voting record and decide for yourself.
» Posted by Luke Pollard, Account Director, Edelman UK | Comments (0)
16 June 2008
Twitter: Investment needed
There comes a point in the life of most web 2.0 start ups when the project reaches a crossroads. Invest and grow or continue and decline. Twitter’s at that point now. Micro-blogging elites have long been extolling the virtues of this site and its functionality. I’m a huge fan. But like most super-users I’m becoming increasingly frustrated with being greeted with the equivalent of Error 404 results saying ‘too many tweets – try again later’. Like early incarnations of Facebook if you don’t invest in capacity the people who make the site a success will go elsewhere. FriendFeed is already attracting these folks. Twitter has announced some recent investments in the platform, and company valuations out there look cheap considering the growth trajectory of similar vanguard platforms if they go mainstream. But in the meantime every time I get greeted by a twitter is broken/offline/down for repair/too busy message I’ll take my micro-blogging elsewhere – the message is simple, invest or die.
» Posted by Luke Pollard, Account Director, Edelman UK | Comments (2)
12 June 2008
Gordon Brown: Hero or Zero?
There are two versions of history doing the rounds in our office at the moment. You pay your money and take your choice…..
Gordon’s low victory came at a high price
The Prime Minister’s ‘victory’ in last night’s 42 day detention vote came at quite some cost; and not just to his reputation. To scrape home only with the support of the 9 DUP members, in what was effectively a confidence vote, is a dreadful indictment of the Government’s position. After all the arm-twisting and threats by the Labour Whips, enough Labour MPs were STILL prepared to defeat their Government by joining with the Tories, Lib Dems and Nationalists in opposition to extending the period of detention without charge.
Having spent most of yesterday afternoon in the House, talking to MPs of all parties, it is clear (and spelled out in glorious detail in today’s papers) what a vast range of deals were done with members in return for their votes. NOT concessions relating to this legislation, but on a range of constituency or personal issues –more compensation for injured miners (not necessarily a bad thing but nothing to do with terrorism); more funding for a range of things in Northern Ireland; lifting of sanctions on Cuba…and on it goes.
What will be really interesting is to see which MPs are honoured with knighthoods or other gongs in coming months. I’m sure if any of them were DUP, or wavering Labour, members it would be entirely coincidental.
OR
A brave Prime Minister risks all for what he believes in
Against the odds, Gordon Brown won the 42 day detention vote yesterday by securing the support of 9 DUP members. Having successfully convinced enough of his wavering MPs of the security case for extending the period, the Prime Minister persuaded the representatives of Northern Ireland’s largest party – no strangers to the evils of terrorism – of the need for their support.
In spite of the potential damage to his own position if he lost, the PM pressed ahead with a vote on an issue he feels passionately about because he believes the extra powers are needed to help Britain’s security forces fight terrorism. Buoyed by the support of the overwhelming majority of the British people who want to see ‘42 days’, Gordon Brown risked all and won.
Whatever the Prime Minister’s other failings, he has shown leadership and bravery here.
» Posted by James Lundie, Associate Director, Edelman UK | Comments (0)
12 June 2008
David Davis and a Statement I don’t understand
I agree with everything David Davis just said about the 42 days vote and I deeply respect the sincerity of his views on the matter. I completely fail to understand the logic of forcing a by-election and fighting re-election on the issue. Firstly, a majority of the British public clearly (though wrongly in my opinion) support the Government on this issue and secondly how does beating a Labour candidate in a seat where Labour is third and has no history of success prove anything?
If I were Gordon Brown I would refuse to stand a candidate on the basis that you have no intention of wasting public time and money to play a political game started by Mr Davis. An independent local candidate, standing for 42 days, with no Labour or Lib Dem opponent may cause an upset.
I admire Mr Davis’ bravery but am completely at a loss as to why he is doing what he is doing. What David Cameron thinks of this is anyone’s guess. We await a statement with interest…..
» Posted by James Lundie, Associate Director, Edelman UK | Comments (2)